Scenarios

The MEDA forecasting framework includes 3 geo-political scenarios, which are based around varying stages of the following factors:

• Levels of economic growth based on economic reforms carried out within the MEDA countries
• Resolution of conflict within the region, particularly concerning Israel
• Geo-political changes such as the rebuilding of Iraq, which affects trade through Mediterranean ports and via Turkey
• Development of regional intgration and the creation of a free trade zone,for the EU-MEDA region, by the year 2010

The scenarios are used to create demand forecasts used in project screening. See the Traffic Model Description for how flows are forecast.

Full economic integration (FEI)

This scenario assumes high economic growth in the reigon and also within the EU, full trade integration and the resolution of conflict within the area.

Global economic slowdown scenario (GES)

The main elements of this scenario are slow economic growth worldwide, slow progress in the implementation of MEDA Association Agreements, no resolution of conflicts and trade flow patterns remaining much the same as now.

Medium economic growth (MEG)

Regional integration takes time; this scenario recognises that full economic integration may not take place rapidly. GDP growth continues in the MEDA countries but intra-MEDA trade will be restricted due to slower progress on implementing GAFTA.